Jan. 5, 2020

Does anyone remember my 2019 New Year’s resolution? No? Good. It was to disconnect more from my technology.

I did OK. Maybe a grade of “C.” I still haven’t returned to allowing notifications on my social media apps. Small steps, right?

This year’s resolution is a little more nebulous, but I think I’m settling on attempting to control my digital “clutter” by reducing my volume of communication and focusing on saying more when I do say something. In other words, try emailing and texting fewer times but saying more when I do.

In that vein, I’m resisting the temptation with this column to play into the “2020” theme and write something like “20 (whatever) to watch.” People, locations, businesses, you get the idea.

Instead, I looked into both my hypothetical reporter’s notebook and my crystal ball to come up with some actual predictions for the coming year. There aren’t 20 of them, but here’s a look at what I’m expecting and watching as we cover the business of Sioux Falls:

You’ll see new national retail in and around The Empire Mall.

Let me get one of my most popular questions out of the way first: I still think you’ll see Dillard’s open at The Empire Mall.

The national department store announced plans to fill and add onto the former Younkers more than a year ago, and originally the idea was to be open by the 2019 holiday shopping season. Now, I think we’re probably looking more like the 2020 holiday season.

I think we’ll finally see a building permit for the store pulled in the first quarter. But, of course, it’s a national retailer, a department store and one that opens very few new locations. So this could change if market conditions deteriorate – but right now I think it’s still on track, just moving more slowly than planned.

Let’s not forget the mall had a pretty solid 2019 otherwise, with new additions such as Altar’d State, Dry Goods and Evereve. Its occupancy would be the envy of many malls nationwide. That bodes well for another anchor, and I also think 2020 could be the year we see a redevelopment plan for the former Sears.

Outside the mall, watch the new Empire Place development take off in 2020. This is going to transform the former auto dealer site along 41st Street into a retail area that will be one of the most popular in the city, I predict.

Some of the national names readers have been requesting for years could land here as they take advantage of a rare opportunity to put a newly built location in front of a major traffic draw.

Veterans Parkway will spark development on the east side.

On the east side, I think we’re going to see a year of nice building activity. The Veterans Parkway/South Dakota 100 corridor will begin coming into its own with the connection to Interstate 90 later in the year.

In preparation for that additional traffic and in response to the existing and future population growth, we’re going to see more commercial activity.

There already has been significant apartment construction, and I expect more. We also should see more activity at Dawley Farm Village, especially south of 18th Street. And both Sioux Falls health systems own land along the Veterans Parkway corridor, so watch for them to start making plans too.

Activity will renew at the USD Discovery District.

After a quiet year and leadership change at the USD Discovery District, expect to see someone hired early in the year to replace Rich Naser, who now serves in another role at USD.

Construction of the first buildings, for lead tenants Alucent Biomedical and SAB Biotherapeutics, should start this year.

Another one to keep an eye on: the adjacent Community College for Sioux Falls, which also will be going through a leadership change as Carmen Simone leaves to become president of Western Nebraska Community College.

Some established businesses will announce new offices.

I won’t name names here, but I’ll be watching a few existing businesses that I know are either out of space or looking for updated space as they consider new offices.

Expect to see a couple land downtown in new projects such as the Sioux Steel redevelopment. Businesses are realizing their environment matters when it comes to talent attraction and retention, and they’re investing accordingly.

The “retail-entertainment” trend will take hold.

It took a bit, but 2020 will be the year the “retail-entertainment” trend takes root in Sioux Falls. We’ve got Dave & Buster’s opening at Lake Lorraine, a large indoor entertainment center coming at Thunder Road, and Great Shots – the golf entertainment business already open at the Sanford Sports Complex.

With their blend of food, drink and interactive entertainment, these concepts make sense in most any market of a certain size, but they could be especially well-received in a cold-weather climate like Sioux Falls.

Vacant big boxes will keep filling up.

Sioux Falls is accumulating a pretty good track record in filling vacant big-box spaces. At Home took the Shopko on 41st Street, and Stan Houston Equipment took the West 12th Street Kmart.

There’s still space left on 41st that used to be Fareway, and there’s space on East 10th in the former Kmart and Shopko plazas. I think there’s interest of some degree or another in all of it, so watch for at least one of those properties to become occupied in 2020.

At least one new project will announce downtown.

I’m a calculated risk-taker, so most of my above predictions are pretty safe. I know enough background information to feel pretty good about being right, barring some unforeseen changes. This last one is a bit of a wild card, but given the momentum of downtown and the city’s interest in potentially selling surface parking lots, I think we could see at least one new project announced in 2020.

That would be in addition to Sioux Steel and Railyard Flats, which both plan to start construction early in the year.

“It’s been amazing to me, through the summer, the inquires we got about property downtown,” Jeff Eckhoff, the city’s director of planning and development services, told me recently. “I think all the activity that’s going on is part of that. It catches people’s attention, in town and out of town.”

Here are my top three question marks heading into 2020:

What form does Sanford’s growth strategy take this year?

Sanford Health approaches 2020 in a different position than many would have anticipated a couple of months ago. No longer merging with UnityPoint Health, I’m guessing the health system is re-evaluating its approach to the year.

At its root, I don’t think Sanford’s strategy of growth and diversification has changed. But what form will that take? Will expansion opportunities related to the Good Samaritan Society footprint emerge? Or will we see more of a focus internally? Will Sanford successfully attract another sports anchor – maybe a minor league baseball team and new stadium – at the Sports Complex? Hopefully, we’ll begin to answer some of those questions before we’re too far into the year.

What will the second half of the year look like?

After talking with business leaders in multiple industries, the consensus was that there’s a nice amount of optimism and confidence as far as business activity in the first half of 2020. It gets murkier as we try to look out later in the year.

Election years typically bring negativity and uncertainty – I’m sure this one will be no different – but the question is how much those sentiments permeate business decision-making. Will we see businesses pull back on projects or job growth? Will we see consumers pull back on their spending? That will say a lot about our outlook for 2021.

What will happen at the mixed-use parking ramp site?

I’ll put this in here not because it’s that big of a question mark for me, but because I know readers continue to wonder about it. First, I know the unfinished parking ramp downtown is an eyesore. But it’s also a very good future development opportunity. I would rather wait for the right user to take full advantage of the site than rush to make something happen there just to show activity. We’re fortunate to have once-in-a-generation development projects starting downtown right now, and I don’t want to take away from maximizing those opportunities either.

But I know potential users continue to look at the parking ramp property, so it’s possible we’ll see something materialize there in the coming year. I’ll call it a question mark with the hope that if we wait for the right timing we can figure out how to turn it into an exclamation point.

I also want to thank all of you for making 2019 a fantastic year in business for me. Your readership and your support of SiouxFalls.Business continue to both energize and humble me. Our team is grateful to tell the stories of such an outstanding business community, and we know 2020 will be filled with many more of them.

After another solid year, Sioux Falls business leaders look ahead to 2020