Sept. 25, 2025

This piece is sponsored by First National Wealth Management.

They’re some of the most popular topics in personal finance right now.

Everyone wants to know: What’s going on with interest rates? How about the housing market? Did anyone else read that article from The Wall Street Journal about Chili’s?

On a recent episode of the Sioux Falls-based podcast “Common Cents on the Prairie,”™ financial experts Adam Cox and Kyle Cipperley from First National Wealth Management delved into the latest in personal finance news.

They’re helping you make sense of recent homebuying trends, the current interest rate environment and what has been dubbed the “Chili’s Economy,” with these three takeaways.

1. The future of interest rates is uncertain.

“Even if you assume short-term interest rates are going to go down, it doesn’t necessarily mean that you’re going to get a great deal on your mortgage anytime soon,” said Cipperley, who is the investments manager at First National Wealth Management.

He explained that the Federal Reserve controls short-term interest rates, which also are known as the Fed funds rate.

The Fed funds rate determines things like credit card rates, prime rates on borrowed money and other things that affect the general population.

“The other rates that matter, though, are longer-term interest rates,” Cipperley said. “And that’s kind of the confusing part right now.”

Those long-term rates are set by market forces and affect things like mortgage rates.

“Last time when the Fed cut short-term rates, longer-term interest rates actually went up; borrowing costs went up,” he said. “And so that’s kind of the challenge right now.”

2. The housing market is at a standstill.

If 80 percent of mortgages today have a rate below 6 percent, said Cipperley, then moving would mean taking a higher mortgage rate.

On top of that, median home prices have risen considerably in the past five years, and insurance costs and property taxes are higher.

“I think that’s why people are not moving, is just, they’re kind of feeling like they’re stuck,” Cipperley said.

“Well, there’s absolutely no incentive unless you’re bursting at the seams or you’re having to move to a new city,” Cox agreed.

The other driving force in the current housing market is the lack of downsizers.

For the same reasons of having to take a higher mortgage rate, pay more money for less house, etc., homeowners who typically would be downsizing out of sought-after family homes are staying put — leading to a standstill in the housing market.

“I think without people downsizing, I don’t know that we’re going to break the log jam,” Cox said.

There might be hope if mortgage rates come down or supply increases also.

3. Chili’s is cool again…?

In August, The Wall Street Journal published an article about how casual, sit-down restaurants such as Chili’s and Olive Garden are winning out over McDonald’s, Wendy’s and the like.

“I don’t think anyone would’ve predicted it,” Cox said, “and certainly not when there’s economic uncertainty.”

Armed at the ready with Chili’s mozzarella sticks, chips and salsa, Cipperley and Cox tried to make some sense of this new dining trend.

Their conclusion: It all comes down to value.

“The fast-food places have raised their prices because their labor costs have gone up and their food costs have gone up,” Cipperley said. “And so that, you know, $5 footlong or the dollar meal deal at McDonald’s or whatever is kind of going away a little bit.”

Even in an uncertain economy, Cipperley describes this shift as the rational choice.

“They’re just looking at Chili’s and saying, ‘Well, gosh, I can get way better food, and it’s like almost the same price,’” he said.

However, this isn’t the only trend happening in the dining world.

As the cost of living continues to increase, consumers seemingly are eating out less frequently and even choosing to skip the pop or side of fries to save money.

Furthermore, patrons of higher-end restaurants might be trading down to places like Chili’s in a similar effort to cut costs.

“A natural place to cut back is going out to eat,” Cipperley said. “So I think you’re sort of seeing the early innings of that in the restaurant sector.”

To learn more about housing, interest rates and the Chili’s economy, watch the full episode of “Common Cents on the Prairie” at the player below. Or, you can listen on Apple Podcasts or your favorite streaming app.

If you’d like help from a financial expert on navigating the latest in personal finance — including what to order at Chili’s — send a note to the team at First National Wealth Management. They’d be happy to have a conversation!

Any comments, insights or strategies discussed in this article are intended to be general in nature and, therefore, may not be suitable for you and your situation, whatever that may be. Before acting on anything written here, please consult with your attorney, CPA and/or your financial advisor.